On 13 May, I subtly urge my patreon subscribers to exchange SGD for Aussie dollar through their securities trading account. As I felt the odds of history repeating itself were very high especially when market dipped to $0.80 level with an immediate recovery.
Also on 3rd June, I posted about the potential market movement on the Aussie against Singapore dollar. I wrote about how market breaking up the $0.97 mark would signal a clear bullish momentum and how simultaneously market is currently trading in a strong resistance zone, which would probably exhaust some bullish strength.
I’d anticipate market to retrace back to the $0.96 area before finding more bullish momentum towards $1. I’m prepare to exit my position if it trades below $0.92, signalling a false bull strength.
My exit is set at $1 which will bring me a 13% capital gain or at $.92 which will bring me a 3.95% capital gain.
DBS Update
I’ve received many remarks on my short position on DBS, since my first post. My justification was, market was speaking a bearish narrative to me (and obviously not to you). Ultimately, the odds weren’t in my favour even though how critical I was about monetary policy just like Robert Lucas.
My short was supported from a macro view of how the pandemic would played out across broad, with huge amount of loans being defaulted through businesses not being able to operate, a stacking oil crisis and reduction in overall aggregate spending. I traded in a consolidation pattern hoping that market will break off the trendline (risky) but it end up respecting it.
Current price seems to be heading up to challenge the $23 – $23.5 level. Market could either play out two ways moving forward, where support can be found at that level (23-23.5) and trade even lower or market can just break out towards the upside.
It sounds very obvious; up or down.
However, the question that you must ask is what would give you the greatest upside on your bet.
Remember ever high will require some sort of drawdown/retracement and for ever low, vice versa.
Market recovery
I was wrong previously on how everything would played out but nonetheless, I’ve revised my view. Hopefully Seth Godin is proud.
Do I think market have recover/recovering? short answer is Yes. Hence i’ve also cut my Hongkong land position with a breakeven.
Why I think market is recovering? based off a single chart – the Volatility Index (VIX), market is illustrating a similar pattern in all crises, is going back to normal levels. Judging from the steepness of decline, market have a high probability to retrace upwards for awhile before heading down.
Opps! I left out this bit earlier on when I wrote this post, market is tightening up over on the daily. Be weary!
May the odds be in your favour. Also, I’m no market wizard nor lambo guru so this is just me blabbering.
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